California walnut industry update: Market and weather conditions

Sales volumes of California walnuts continue to follow traditional month‑to‑month patterns. The industry’s overall committed/sold position currently stands at approximately 90–95%. Carry‑out is anticipated at around 90,718 MT, of which an estimated 54,000 – 64,000 MT are already pre‑sold for shipment in September and October.

Following last year’s short crop, all markets have returned to traditional volume levels. At the same time, the pricing situation remains challenging for growers. Grower prices continue to be too low for many operations to break even, unless they are high‑volume producers. While prices have firmed slightly, they remain well below expectations held in September 2025.

Weather conditions and outlook for 2026

Weather conditions in California have been mixed. In the northern walnut‑growing regions, rainfall has been within normal ranges, although storms arrived later than usual. Snow levels remain low; however, reservoir storage levels are sufficient, and water availability for the 2026 season is expected to be adequate.

Walnut trees began blooming approximately two weeks earlier than normal due to higher‑than‑average temperatures earlier in the season. Over the past several weeks, temperatures have returned to more typical levels. At this stage, it is too early to determine how these conditions may impact the 2026 crop size.